There has been no shortage of negative headline news surrounding retail over the past few years. Major retailers have announced thousands of store closures and many have gone out of business. The rise of e-commerce has been a disruptor to brick and mortar retailers, with department stores and regional malls being the most negatively impacted. Consumers are shifting their shopping preferences while retailers struggle to adapt.
Retail properties are a core allocation in commercial mortgaged-backed securities (CMBS). This week’s chart depicts retail exposure in CMBS transactions over the last several years. When the securitization market re-opened after the financial crisis, the retail exposure was quite high, at 55%, in 2010. Since that time, the retail component has come down to an average of 21% in 2017. This is partly driven by investor pushback and their risk aversion to certain types of retail properties.
Over this time, however, the total delinquencies of retail properties in CMBS have been stable. While there have been many recent store closures and bankruptcies, the delinquency rate has been somewhat benign. Rent growth has remained positive and vacancy rates have remained steady.
Key Takeaway
Despite the pressures facing retail properties, vacancy rates remain manageable and the lack of new construction has been supportive of occupancy levels despite shifting demand. Retail properties are undergoing a transformation process to incorporate technology and offer more experiential options. While I expect the physical retail space to continue to shrink in the near term, the current allocation in CMBS transactions is less worrisome. A careful review of retail exposure and property subtype is important when identifying underlying risks. I seek well-diversified collateral with strong property characteristics in primary markets to mitigate risk.
The material provided here is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management.
This material is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
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