Last week capped an eventful month as a cooling inflation picture and slowing but solid growth had the market effectively call the end to further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. While the latter was important, the big boost in sentiment was driven by the anticipation of the first rate cuts to come in the first half of 2024 — something that was not being priced in as we ended October. During the last week of November alone, the 2-year Treasury declined approximately 30 basis points.1 The debate regarding rate cuts will continue into the new year, but risk markets embraced the narrative for the time being and rallied significantly.
The week ahead will continue to provide insight into the strength of the economy with Tuesday’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index as well as Friday’s payroll number and University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.2
Sources:
1U.S. Department of the Treasury – Daily Treasury Rates; as of 12/1/23
2MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 12/4/23
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