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With the bond market pricing in a near 100% chance for a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, this week’s busy economic calendar will offer more important data on U.S. economic growth and inflation. This week’s data may finally validate that Fed rate cuts are set to begin.
The initial read on second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Second-quarter GDP is expected to grow by 1.9%, up from 1.4% in the first quarter.1 The first half of 2024 economic growth is well within the Fed’s “comfort zone” after surprising to the upside during the second half of 2023.
Fresh inflation data is set to be released Friday with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index release. June PCE is expected to be flat, with core PCE up 0.1%,2 suggesting the Fed will receive more evidence inflation is trending back toward its 2% target.
Sources:
1,2MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 7/22/24
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