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This week’s economic calendar is relatively light; however, markets will have plenty to digest with new information coming out of the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium is set to begin on Thursday,1 with Fed Chair Powell’s Friday speech headlining the event.2 Although investors will be looking for more clues about the timing of the first rate cut, Chair Powell is unlikely to deviate too far from the Fed’s “data dependent” narrative. With the recent move lower in Treasury yields, the only question for bond investors now is whether the September cut will be 25 or 50 basis points.3
Wednesday’s release of the July Fed meeting minutes may show how much consensus is building inside the Fed about the start of rate cuts.4 The July Fed meeting occurred prior to the July jobs report, which showed another sign of softening labor market conditions. The strength of the August employment report due out in early September will likely be the deciding factor in the size of next month’s Fed rate cut.
Sources:
1Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; August 2024
2,4MarketWatch – U.S. Economic Calendar; as of 8/19/24
3Yahoo! Finance – Investors look to Powell's Jackson Hole speech for clues about Fed’s first cut; 8/19/24
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