The Week of Liberation Day
March 31, 2025
Markets closed last week and are starting this week with heavy selling, due in part to increasing uncertainty around tariffs, potential tax hikes and some economic data pointing to stagflation. Last Friday’s economic numbers revealed a shortfall in personal spending coupled with higher-than-expected core personal consumption expenditures (PCE).1 The University of Michigan consumer confidence results were weaker and the surveys also showed higher, and perhaps entrenched, expectations for inflation, at least among those polled.2
China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in a year, and the non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) also came in ahead of expectations.3 Over the weekend, the narrative around tariffs potentially hit peak fear and uncertainty, but markets may get some clarity on April 2 — deemed “Liberation Day.”4 Treasuries are rallying to start the week, and the 10-year is approximately 4.2% with risk-off sentiment leading the way.5
In the week ahead, the key economic numbers include the March Institute for Supply Management (ISM) U.S. manufacturing report on Tuesday, the March U.S. services ISM on Thursday and the March jobs report on Friday.6 Also on Tuesday, the first major elections since the presidential election will take place in Wisconsin and Florida.7 President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement is expected Wednesday, April 2. Senate Republicans are also hoping to pass a reconciliation budget framework this week.
Sources:
1-3,6Bloomberg
4Associated Press – Trump’s promised ‘Liberation Day’ of tariffs is coming. Here’s what it could mean for you; 3/31/25
5CNBC – U.S. 10-Year Treasury; as of 3/31/25
7USA Today – Wisconsin, Florida voters are up next in 2025: What to know; 3/31/25
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