Despite significant steps by the U.S. government over the weekend to restore confidence in the banking system, investors are fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds to start the week. The sudden failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — the second- and third-largest U.S. bank failures on record — required just as sudden a response by the U.S. government to stem the tide of depositors exiting the banking system.1 The two most significant steps were insuring bank deposits above the $250,000 limit and setting up a new Federal Reserve (Fed) lending facility that effectively eliminates the duration risk of fixed income assets being used as collateral.
Treasury bond yields are falling sharply, led by the front end of the yield curve as investors reassess the path of Fed tightening. The 2-year Treasury note yield just registered its steepest three-day decline since October 1987.2 The disinflationary forces of stress in the banking system and tightening credit conditions could likely do more to get inflation back toward the Fed’s 2% target than additional rate hikes.
Sources:
1Source: The New York Times- Silicon Valley Bank Fails After Run on Deposits; 3/10/23
2Source: CNBC- U.S. 2 Year Treasury; as of 3/13/23
< Go to Monday Morning Perspectives
This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client. Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
